This Thursday, Dec. 28, Alberta set a new mark for electricity use. We hit an all-time record high of 11,473 MW. That surpassed the 2016 record by 15 MW.
It’s probably not surprising.
It’s cold. It’s dark.
Our furnaces are pumping. Our lights are ablaze. Our washing machines and computers are in overdrive.
You might expect electricity prices in Alberta to be in overdrive, too. But that’s the real surprise.
Electricity prices in Alberta remained remarkably low in 2017. This month, the average daily pool price has been floating between $19 to $24 a megawatt hour. That’s up slightly from the $18.28/MWh average pool price in 2016. But it’s a fraction of what we paid in 2013, when the price was $80.19/MWh. Or in 2008, when the average price was $89.95/MWh. In today’s dollars? That’s actually closer to $103.51/MWh.
A 2017 survey of consumer electricity prices by Hydro Quebec showed that Edmonton had the third-lowest power prices among some two dozen major North American cities. (Only Montreal and Winnipeg were lower.) In Edmonton, the average price for residential customers was 10.34 cents per kiloWatt hour. That’s compared to 15.94 cents /kWh in Regina, 16.32 cents /kWh in Toronto, and 31.05 cents/kWh in San Francisco.
What’s going on?
Andrew Leach, who teaches energy and environmental economics at the University of Alberta’s School of Business, says the first factor keeping down electricity prices remains the low price of natural gas. Alberta has a natural gas surplus, with no easy way to ship the commodity to other markets. So with our cheap gas largely shut in, gas-fired power plants have ample cheap fuel.
But Leach says prices are also low because electricity supply is outstripping market demand.
“Electricity demand hasn’t grown as quickly has had been expected,” says Leach. “It’s well under historic forecasts.”
It’s not that demand is down. We are using slightly more electricity than we did 10 years ago. But demand hasn’t risen at anything like the pace all the experts had predicted.
Part of that, Leach says, is the impact of the slowdown in Alberta’s economy, particularly in the oilsands. But some, he suggests, may be related to consumer choices to buy more energy-efficient appliances and light bulbs and such.
And electricity generation has increased sharply over the last decade.
Ten years ago, we were in a far different situation. Back then, AESO, Alberta’s electric system operator, was warning Albertans that their winter demand for electricity was at an all-time high, and that the grid might not keep pace.
A decade ago, the province’s total electricity production capacity was just 11,849 MW — and we were using almost that much on the coldest winter days. AESO had to come up with all kinds of contingency plans, from throttling power to big industrial uses to rolling hour-long blackouts in the dead of winter.
A decade later, demand has levelled off, but capacity has increased to more than 16,400 MW.Indeed, there’s more than 16,600 MW on days when it’s really windy. Some of that has to do with the opening in 2015 of the Shepard Energy Centre, a huge Calgary gas-fired plant co-owned by Enmax and Capital Power.
But a lot of it is from a bunch of smaller co-generation and renewable projects that each add their little bit to the grid. Much to my own cynical surprise, in this instance, deregulation is actually working for consumers.
The surplus may start to decline as older coal powered-plants head for early retirement. For now, though, we’re getting a remarkable bargain to heat and light our homes and businesses.
In the new year, the carbon levy on natural gas will go up by $0.506 a gigajoule, for a total natural gas carbon tax of $1.517 a gig. But given gas costs a scant $2.05 a gigajoule right now — compared to $9.85 a gigajoule back in 2008 — we’ll still be heating on the cheap, all Opposition hyperventilating to the contrary.
We’ll feel it a bit more at the gas pumps, where the levy is going up another 2.24 cents to a total of 6.73 cents a litre.
But there’s the Catch-22 of the carbon tax. With fuel prices at historic lows, we won’t feel it as much. That grants the government certain political cover. Yet when we don’t feel the bite of the tax, we don’t get a prompt to be energy efficient, which is one point of the levy.
At this moment, Albertans have the privilege of heating and lighting our lives at rock bottom prices. It’s a privilege we’d be well advised to appreciate while it lasts.
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