美元今年的大幅度调整是否已经完成呢？毕竟，美汇指数相对3月19日的高位已经跌10%，由今年初至今下跌4.4%。尽管一些负面因素有所缓解，仍然有证据显示，美元仍有更多的下行空间，所以我们认为，有充分理由对美元发出类似预言式的警告。
1. 美元汇率仍有高估现象
美元仍然被高估，以贸易加权的实质有效汇率为基础来计算，美元是全球主要货币当中最昂贵之一。尽管欧元与欧盟的贸易伙伴的货币相比，看上去已经不再廉宜，但与美元相比，仍然显得相对较为廉宜。至于瑞典克朗、日圆和英镑等，上升空间就更大。
2. 拜登倘当选带来下行风险
美国总统选举给美元带来了下行风险。特朗普政府近年采取的措施，都是对美元有支持作用的。例如，他透过大幅削减美国的企业所得税，有效降低了美国国内的生产成本；另一方面，他又透过施加“惩罚关税”，令到从中国大陆进口的产品的价格上升。
如果拜登当算为新一届美国总统，这些额外施加的进口关税被降低的机会要大过提高。此外，如果民主党人能够在参议院取得控制权，新一届美国政府可能会重新提高企业所得税及加强企业监管。虽然这些政治因素目前仍然不明朗，但政党轮换的风险，可能会在11月大选之前对美元造成压力。
3. 欧元区或吸引资金流入
欧盟的改革可能会吸引资金流入。我们认为，欧盟启动由中央联合发债来推出“复苏基金”的举措，将会提振欧元的汇率。这个行动，应该可以减低外界对于欧元作为欧洲多国的单一货币是否能够继续存在的担忧，同时还可以创造出一批可能吸引到外国资金流入的投资级别债券。这已经引致欧元在近期反弹，虽然暂时可能属于超买水平，但长期来看，似乎是可以持续的。
不过，有一个因素可能会抵消这个效应，那就是要比较美国和其他国家的货币政策。去年10月，市场对美元突然改为看跌的一个关键原因，是美国联储局开始减息以及扩大资产负债表。因为与大多数国家的中央银行相比，美国联储局仍然有较大的空间去放宽货币政策，这为美元带来了不对称的货币政策风险，并倾向于下行。
减息扩资产负债表 助稳定美元
此外，当新型冠状病毒肺炎早前在美国大爆发时，联储局大幅度削减利率，同时更加积极地扩充其资产负债表，这也是大多数中央银行无法比拟的。随着联储局成功地将流动性危机消灭于萌芽状态，美元汇率因为供应增加而回跌，迅速抵消了在今年初录得的升幅。
不过，美国的短期利率现在已经回落到接近零，而且联储局扩充其资产负债表的速度亦已经显著放缓。因此，有些人可能会争辩说，从相对货币政策的角度来看，美元是应该看涨的，至少相对其他最活跃的央行发行的货币来说是如此。
这是有可能的，但联储局将于9月15日举行下一次议息会议，在正式宣布之前就提出这个看法，可能为时过早。
倘联储局再出招 看淡美元或升温
在8月底，联储局就调整了其策略政策框架，着眼于将通货膨胀率推高至超过其2%的固有目标，以弥补过去的不足，以及更好地确定长期通胀预期。上星期，联储局副主席理查德．克拉里达（Richard Clarida）和理事布雷纳德（Lael Brainard）都表示，这项迫切的新政策势必会引致其资产负债表政策发生变化。
因此，对美元看淡仍然是市场的基本看法。如果联储局在下一次议息会议中，提出新一轮的货币刺激政策，这个看法有可能进一步升温。
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