气急败坏的印度,终成中国大患

Posted on 7th Sep 2020

作为一对一的对手,印度是虚弱的;作为国际关系中的敌人,印度是强大的。

当前局面下,印度不断碰瓷、牛皮癣式的制造麻烦,是相当危险的。 中美关系是中国国际关系的基石,两国共同利益远远高于分歧。

疫情爆发以来,印度搞大新闻的能力爆表。最令人瞩目的是中印边界的挑衅已经走到了局部战争的边缘,而经济领域的动作更不容小觑。

 

最新的动作是印度政府已经宣布禁用118款中国手机APP,估计这一数字很快就会上升到200以上。此前还有连打带哄地挖中国制造业墙角,富士康、苹果都是延揽的对象,踩着中国制造搞印度制造的意图揭然。
一方面是经济雪崩、疫情恶化的极度脆弱,另一方面是军事挑衅、经济排华的咄咄逼人。印度正在从牛皮癣式的小麻烦,迅速升级为心腹大患。

印度到底意欲何为?想法能否得逞?这个南亚次大陆的巨人,还有很多需要了解的地方。

01散装大国印度

俄塔新社9月3日报道,近日,印度代表纳加拉吉再次向联合国提交了申请,五常之中四常已经表示同意显然没有表示支持的是中国,上一次也是中国投了否决票。


而且,这次印度获得了几乎所有非洲国家的支持,其中有不少中国人熟悉的老朋友就是刚被豁免债务的那些。尽管以目前的中印关系看,印度很可能再次被中国阻挡,但是印度作为大国的地位已经不存争议。 然而,和其他大国不同,印度的内部情况要复杂纷乱得多,还没有完成现代民族国家的进程。

印度的省级行政机构有28个邦、6个联邦属地及1个国家首都辖区。印度各邦的权利要大于美国各州,甚至在莫迪搞统一国内税收之前,各邦之间的贸易是征收关税的,足见中央政府对各邦的内部事务影响力多么有限。 印度的人口结构也非常复杂,复杂程度堪称世界第一。

印度有100多个民族,所谓主要民族印度斯坦族占比不到50%。民族众多,语言就更多了。现已正式登记的语言就有1662种,超过百万人使用的语言有33种,主体民族所谓印度斯坦族也并没有统一的语言。 因此,印度独立时宪法规定了14种语言为联邦官方语言,后来逐步增加到22种。这么多联邦官方语言显然不是考虑日常的行政、司法使用,只是一种地位的象征。 真正的行政、司法语言是印地语和英语,后来为了凸显印度本位、去殖民化,英语在名义上被降级为附加官方语言,当然实际上英语的地位仍然是最重要的。使用最广泛的本土语言印地语是43%的印度人的母语,可是地位也很脆弱。少数民族对印地语的官方地位并不买账,语言矛盾在印度时有发生。


多民族、多语言的文化多样性是相关领域学者的心头好,但是象牙塔里看风景和实际社会生活是两回事。没有清晰的主体文化、主体语言,统一市场、教育普及、政治军事动员都会困难重重。

印度在建国后也多次试图完成现代民族国家建设,但是缺乏主体性的现实导致事倍功半,缺乏成绩。 西方开始流行多元文化后,印度索性大打多元文化牌,以获得西方认可。其实,多元文化并非印度的主动选择,而是不得不承受的软肋。 莫迪显然不是多元文化的支持者,他的做法是打内外两张牌,凝聚印度本位的民族主义意识。


对内,打出了宗教牌。

印度人口的80%都信奉印度教,尽管印度教教派分化程度也很印度,不过好歹也算一面大旗。莫迪的做法是以国内两亿穆斯林群体为靶子,把宗教矛盾转化为印度教徒的凝聚力。印度是印度教的印度是他的口号,在各项政策上高调反穆挺印,不惜以社会冲突加剧为代价。

对外,莫迪打出中国威胁牌,这是中印关系恶化的主要因素。对外这张牌和我们关系比较大,后面详述。

总之,散装印度是印度多年来发展迟缓、缺乏行动力的主要原因,而莫迪政府上台后一系列内外举措,目的在于改变散装的状态,完成现代民族国家的进程。

02薛定谔的印度 薛定谔的猫是著名的物理学思想实验,那只和放射性物质、氰化物共存、既是死的又是活的的可怜猫并不真实存在。但是薛定谔的印度是真实存在的,印度是既是又是造句的好对象。

比如,印度既是文明的,又是野蛮的。

印度是文明古国,印度文化从高深莫测的哲学到瑜伽、咖喱的流行文化样样齐全。而且经过英国殖民时代的熏陶,印度精英阶层普遍欧化,绅士范儿十足。可是,印度至今还有大量陋习,童婚、巨额彩礼、寡妇殉葬等等饱受诟病。
又如,印度既是温和的,又是暴力的。

深受宗教浸染的印度人整体上乐天知命,抢劫杀人之类的恶性暴力犯罪率很低。但是,强奸盛行,已经是印度的驰名商标。 更可怕的是教族矛盾爆发后,平时一脸微笑的邻居秒变手持大砍刀杀你全家的暴徒,1992年12月6日印度北方邦毁寺事件引发印度教徒与穆斯林之间的矛盾在全国爆发,一天暴乱死亡1100人,震惊全球。其实,也就是这次死人数量多了点,数人、数十人死亡的宗教冲突事件在印度是司空见惯的。

最有意思的是印度的政治,既是西方民主的,又是社会主义的。

印度从英国殖民地的起点走向了现代,英国的政治遗产塑造了印度的政治形态,各种政治制度很西化。但是,印度自建国后又引入了大量苏联制度,以建设社会主义为目标。

1950年印度宪法在序言中开宗明义地写道:我们印度人民已庄严决定,将印度建成为主权的社会主义的非宗教性的民主共和国。这不是纸面上的文字游戏,也不是欧洲社民主义,而是对苏联制度的模仿。印度的建国者甘地、尼赫鲁都对苏联深有好感,自称是社会主义者。 印度在1950年就成立了国家计划委员会,直接对总理负责,职责包括制定印度经济五年计划,60多年来印度国家计委始终保持高高在上的经济决策地位,把持国家建设和财政支出的决定权,实际权力堪比苏联的计委。这一机构直到2015年才被撤销,改为全国改革印度学会。 印度的国有制比例、产业覆盖面上都超过了中国。

印度的国有垄断印度政府全面拥有重工业、电力、运输、电信和银行业。除了这些基础产业外,印度国有企业还进入汽车制造和旅馆业,在粮食、糖、食油和化肥等主要商品的批发贸易中也占据了主导地位。 这也折射出印度和苏联之间的关系有多么紧密。在冷战格局形成初期,印度发起了不结盟运动,企图在美苏之外形成第三势力。


但是,随着1962年中印战争印方失败以及中苏交恶的影响,印度和苏联之间的关系更为紧密,

苏联提供了从军工到经济援助的全套服务。

而印度投桃报李,对苏联也给予了很多回报,甚至在苏联入侵阿富汗遭到包括中国在内的全球反对巨浪中,印度是为数不多的支持者。

因为苏联入侵阿富汗的剑锋所指是印度的老冤家巴基斯坦,根据阿赫罗梅耶夫元帅的回忆,侵巴计划在1981年已经进入了演练环节,按照苏联设想印度将会担任侧翼的攻击。后因苏联在阿富汗的行动并不顺利,战争陷入被动,这一计划才被搁浅。

和苏联关系密切,也就意味着和美国关系疏远。中印战争时,中美关系处于低谷,因此美国也给予了印度一些军事援助,但是大都是淘汰装备的象征性物资,和苏联的积极态度不可同日而语。在印巴之争中,美国和中国一样都是巴基斯坦的铁杆支持者,而这个共同的盟友为后来的中美建交提供了渠道。

苏联解体后,印度和俄罗斯的关系也一直很紧密,包括核潜艇这样的战略性武器都是俄罗斯供应印度的。2001年著名的911事件后,美国和伊斯兰世界矛盾加剧,波及到和巴基斯坦的关系,印度才和美国走近了。

因此,在国际外交领域,印度也是既是又是既是苏联-俄罗斯的宠儿,又是美英的关系户。而维持这种危险的走钢丝,

打中国牌一直是印度的重要技巧。

03虚弱的印度、危险的印度 作为一对一的对手,印度是虚弱的;作为国际关系中的敌人,印度是强大的。 1961-1962年的中印战争,印度输了个底裤朝天,一代枭雄、无比自负的尼赫鲁最终因这场惨败郁郁而终。那时的中国并不是历史上的最佳状态,但是对付印度也并不费力。 尼赫鲁在生命最后阶段,回忆这场战争时说,我永远不知道中国人在想什么。其实是他想多了

对印度,中国人没什么秘密,甚至没有什么想法。 由于佛教的影响,中国人对印度一直是抱有善意的好奇。这种好奇心从未突破过青藏高原的地理屏障,甚至大部分中国人都不知道在唐代初年的贞观年间,一位叫王玄策的文官就曾成功地组织了一场征服印度中部王国的战争。这场战争甚至没有得到长安的直接支持,皇朝高层对事态进程也不甚了了,事后也只是轻描淡写地处理。这就是中华帝国在高原上俯瞰印度的心态。 一千三百多年后,中国对印度仍然是这样的态度。

印度的经济基础脆弱,尽管竭力做出强大的样子,却掩盖不了虚弱的底色。

疫情爆发之前,雄心勃勃不惜透支国力要搞印度制造、印度版大基建的莫迪经济学已经疲态尽显。

2016年印度废钞令后,直接打击了影子银行,灰色资金树倒猢狲散,再加上实际上是大规模通胀紧缩,资金窟窿也没法补上。于是,外资也开始撤离,这让国内投资者对房产更为谨慎。

2019年,印度方兴未艾的房地产业、建筑业陷入停摆,印度大型房地产咨询企业Anarock的数据显示,截至9月底,仅印度七大城市圈就有58万个项目陷入严重的工程延误或完全停工,售价相当于4.64万亿卢比。印度经济遭遇重创。

新冠疫情在年初爆发,莫迪政府一度视为掩盖经济糟糕的最佳借口,甚至是世人皆病我独好的机会。当时印度官方民间充满了盲目的自信印度人天生免疫能力强印度从未被瘟疫打败过他们显然忘记了19世纪初加尔各答伤寒大爆发的惨状。

但是,疫情的残酷现实很快把他们拉回到现实。即便采取了全国封锁的措施,每千人病床数0.7个的超低医疗资源配置决定了,这个国家没有抵御疫情的能力。

时至今日,印度已经成为全球疫情最严重的国家,目前印度国内新冠病例累计确诊数量已经突破390万。

名义上是美国、巴西之后的世界第三大疫区,实际上很可能是第一。因为缺乏基层治理的印度,确诊人数肯定是不完整统计,而美国是广口径统计。


而经济,更是雪崩。

第二季度一开始,印度经济就是乌云密布。著名金融数据公司IHSMarkit公布的数据显示,印度4月服务业采购经理人指数(PMI)跌至5.4,为史上首次出现个位数,同时创出世界最低记录。前值则为49.3,下跌幅度达到了88.4%,也是创纪录的跌幅。

第二季度结束后一盘点,经济大崩盘。印度第二季度GDP较去年同期下降了23.9%,创下历史新低,远差于预期的18.3%。有评论称这一跌幅是仅次于美国,其实美国的32%是年化统计,除以四后不过8%跌幅。印度的23.9%是妥妥的全球一哥,领跌全球。 如此销魂的经济状况,军事能力再强也很难和中国抗衡。何况印度的军事能力应该这么说,印度军队三大神器瑜伽、拜神、演杂技是很强,但是和赢得战争无关。

 

空军是飞行棺材扎堆,国营军工集团印度斯坦航空是印度空军最大的敌人。海军最大的敌人是印度人的马虎大意,他们能把靠泊在港口的核潜艇直接点爆。可能人多势众的陆军稍有看点,印度国产的阿琼主战坦克又是反面典型。 印度军队一无是处,曾经坑了尼赫鲁,这位失意的领袖在战败后对议会发言抱怨自家军队:我记得高级将领们到我们这里来,并且给国防部写信,要这要那如果我们有远见,知道后来发生的事情,我们会是另一种做法印度从这场战争中学到了这个世界容不下弱国我们一直生活在自欺欺人的世界中。 翻译过来就是你们都在害朕,这就是印度国防力量的现状。但是,在国际关系的复杂局面下,印度是一个难缠的敌人。

这番中印交恶,和1961年的碰瓷类似,又是中国外交困境之下发生的。应该承认,莫迪把握时机的能力确实超强。 和上次一样,印度同时得到了俄美的支持。而美国的支持主要是政治上的象征姿态,真正有力的是来自俄罗斯的支援。不仅给了从飞机到步枪的先进武器支援,还签署了协议互派军队、军舰以及军机。3000俄国军人将会驻守在印度,这种千里送武器并附送军人的贴心服务,让所谓中俄同盟变成了笑话。 这是一个非常危险的迹象,去年俄罗斯和蒙古签约,强化了俄蒙的同盟关系。如今俄印关系的快速升温,俄罗斯的选择是很清晰的。如果中印全面交战,敌人只是南方那些瑜伽兵?擅长打中国牌的印度在争取外交支持方面显然是成功的。

这就是印度的可怕之处,不擅长单挑的印度总能在你的背后埋下杀机。

中国人不能和尼赫鲁一样,不能一直生活在自欺欺人的世界中。

04结语:龙象之争的未来 中印关系被比喻为龙象之争,从人口规模和地区地位看,确实可以这样看。但是,仅就国力、经济发展速度,或许真可一比。但是,

印度外强中干的综合实力并不能为她提供赢面。

如果中国能够保持改革开放以来的发展势头,那么大可不必介意这位南亚邻居她的经济体制只相当于中国改开的八十年代水平,经济表现也只达到了中国九十年代的水准。

中印之间的差距是整整一个世代,追赶并不容易。但是,当前局面下,印度不断碰瓷、牛皮癣式的制造麻烦,是相当危险的。

如果这种不断碰瓷、步步蚕食的伎俩被默许,那么中国的边境线压力将是全方位的。


当然,局面并非无解。

印度本身国力孱弱,背后的俄罗斯正在迅速衰弱,两者行动力都很有限。关键是美国,美国对印度的心结并不低。追逐贸易成就的特朗普对印度的关税壁垒一直心怀不满,其印度洋战略和印度的印度洋野心也有根本的冲突。

中印矛盾爆发后,特朗普曾表态可以充当调停人。这一表态的含义是基本中立的立场,而不是真正在当下介入调停。实际上,尽管中美关系陷入冰点,但是美国迄今为止也没有对印度有实质性的帮助,明显留有余地。


总之,印度到底是牛皮癣式的小麻烦,还是心腹之患、天下围攻的急先锋,很大程度上取决于中美关系的走向。这再一次证明了良好的

中美关系是中国国际关系的基石,两国共同利益远远高于分歧。

印度的逆风活跃,是中国对外关系的警报,已经响彻云霄。

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