特朗普黔驴技穷,中美关系回不去了

Posted on 7th Sep 2020

美国国务卿蓬佩奥(Mike Pompeo)7月23日在尼克松总统图书馆(Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum)前发表“共产中国与世界的未来”演说,宣称尼克松五十年前启动对中国的和解政策已经无效,美国不能再把中共领导下的中国视作“正常国家”,中共不能代表14亿中国人民。他还呼吁各国建立新的民主联盟对抗中国。在蓬佩奥发言前后,美国政府已经采取一连串行动限制中国高科技产品在美国的运营,美国海军亦在南海不断进行军演秀肌肉,美国更宣布关闭中国驻休斯敦总领事馆。蓬佩奥的演讲与相关政治动作都具有高度政治象征意义,很明显,中美关系已经回不去了。

全球已经进入一个新的时代,中国已经无法再像过去那样遵守邓小平的“韬光养晦”政策,但一定会坚持“有所作为”的原则,应对来自美国的挑战。

美国选举与中美博弈

 

观察美国目前的选情,特朗普(Donald Trump)正在艰难地试图挽回颓势,因此选前他势必会做出更多异常的行为,藉以力挽狂澜,吸引选民的关注。特朗普的做法就是要激怒中国,逼使中国采取强烈的对抗方式,这样就可给予自己操弄民意、凝聚国内共识进行反击的机会。1964年8月,美方虚构与夸大在北部湾发生越南民主共和国(北越)海军攻击美国海军事件,引起美国民意的反弹,使得美国得以全面升级越南战争。这种“北部湾模式”正是特朗普目前想要复制的做法。由于中国一直采取“沉着应付”的方式应对美国的挑衅,以致特朗普的计谋无法得逞。

不过,当前中美关系紧张对立不只是美国选举与特朗普个人因素在作祟,并不会随着特朗普下台而告结束。面对美国国力不断衰退,如何持续压制中国的崛起,避免美国霸权地位改变,这已经是美国两党政治人物都在关注的议题,因此打压中国不会终止。事实上中美关系的恶化不是从特朗普时代开始,早在奥巴马(Barack Obama)出任总统、美国渡过2008年金融危机后就已经开始,美方对中国采取了一连串不友好的行动。

特朗普虽然敢做出许多惊人的决策,但因为缺乏执行战略的慎密策略,因此常常虎头蛇尾,无法真正贯彻乃至实现目标。加上他的商人特质,所有的政策都是以自我利益为最高考量。因此特朗普如果继续在位,事实上对于中国争取更大的国际空间反而有利。中国网民常常戏称特朗普为“川建国同志”,虽然是幽默,但确实有深远的涵义。

如果美国大选后特朗普无法连任,拜登(Joe Biden)当选总统,且民主党能够掌控参众两院,则中美之间将会出现长期的对峙。拜登不会像特朗普那样采取非常粗暴的方式处理国际关系,但他会更细致地改善与欧洲、日本等盟国的关系,也会采取更为配套的策略对抗中国,如同奥巴马时代的做法。届时美国可能又会尝试重回亚洲,再度建立压制中国经济发展的《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(TPP),而且手法可能较阴柔,形式上更重视欧盟与日本等盟邦的看法与利益,这些都会使中美对峙形势变得更为险恶。

如何与美国博弈

中美之间的对弈可以分短期与长期来看。短期而言,美国11月大选前是一个阶段,由于特朗普选情低迷,这位不按常理出牌的总统可能会采取许多惊天动地的行动来拉抬选情,甚至不惜发动小型的军事冲突来激化美国选民的情绪。

美国因为实行联邦制与三权分立的总统制,政出多门,所以政府的行动常常缺乏配套政策支持,无法贯彻总统的意志。尤其是特朗普所具有的商人特质与不稳定性格,使得他目前的行动常常只具有表演性,无法发挥实际的效果。所以只要中国不随他起舞,特朗普所采取的行动很难实现其目的。

长期来看,中共7月30日召开的政治局会议,深入讨论了当前世界政经变局与日趋紧张的中美关系,特别提到当今世界正经历百年未有之大变局,和平与发展仍然是时代主题,同时国际环境日趋复杂,不稳定性与不确定明显增强。会议对于整体形势、应对策略与未来具体工作进行了讨论,显然面对未来变局,中共已经在做积极准备。

面对美国的种种敌对行动,中国现在的做法是以打持久战的方式应对:你关我的驻休斯敦总领事馆,我就封你的驻成都总领事馆。不升高对立,但采取对等报复的方式予以应对,让美国既无法利用冲突事件刺激美国民众的反华情绪,也清楚地展示中国不妥协屈服的立场。美国会继续寻事生非,以期激发成激烈的对抗,但中国目前的应对显然让美国无法达成目标。

中美的对抗是经济力量的较量,此次中共政治局会议提到要“加快形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局”,要通过发展国内市场,藉此带动国际经济的发展。一旦国内国际双循环相互促进的格局形成,中国经济实力无疑将会加速增长。

团结亚非拉人民

受到新冠肺炎(COVID-19)疫情影响,全球经济陷入衰退与紧缩,特别是发展中国家,由于基础设施不足,更难对抗疫情。面对美国在国际上的打压,中国要通过农村包围城市的策略,建立与发展中国家的紧密合作,加强与第三世界国家的经济合作关系,协助它们对抗疫情、经济发展,使其实现独立自主的经济增长,摆脱帝国主义的宰制与剥削。在亚、非、拉地区,许多国家遭受到以美国为首的西方帝国主义的侵害,这些国家的领导人与人民普遍希望摆脱美国的宰制,而中国对他们相对比较友好,也不具威胁性。因此中国的高科技产品如北斗卫星导航系统、抖音短视频社交软件、5G通讯与交通建设都受到欢迎。

不过,这些国家都存在着资金不足以及综合实力弱的问题,因此中国与这些国家的经贸互动要多考虑对方的立场,不宜从短期经济利益的角度盘算,让双赢真正得到实现。同时要加强协助这些国家抵抗美国干预的实力,以防美国政治介入导致政治混乱。

当愈来愈多第三世界国家使用中国的产品与科技系统时,美国的围堵将日益难以发挥作用,中国占有国际市场的份额也将会持续增加。目前发展中国家以东盟(ASEAN)的战略地位最为关键,应该是中国最主要的团结对象。

打破美国的围堵

目前最坚定支持美国的是英语系统的“五眼联盟”,但对五眼联盟国家也应加以分类,区别对待。五眼联盟中,英国与澳大利亚是完全跟着美国走,根本不考虑与中国交恶可能付出的成本。加拿大与新西兰则有所不同,加拿大与美国一直关系紧张,尤其目前加拿大执政党自由党在意识形态上与美国共和党相对比较对立,只是近来因为孟晚舟事件才使得中加关系变得极端恶化,加拿大政府不得不跟着美国起舞。新西兰政府对中国并未采取太敌视的政策,中国可以互惠的方式加强双边关系。对于目前一直紧追美国的澳大利亚,中国应该设法在经济上给予痛击,即使是“伤敌一千,自损八百”,也要对澳大利亚经济造成重创,从而让各国看到与中国为敌所要付出的代价。

除了五眼联盟外,美国目前积极拉拢的对象就是欧盟、日本与印度。日本与中国的经贸利益极深,会避免采取极端的方式与中国对抗,因此中国要争取日本不要向美国一边倒,并非困难之事。但日本也绝对不会与美国划清界线,脱欧入亚,跟中国建立紧密的关系。中国能让日本在中美冲突中不会完全倒向美国就已经算是取得小小胜利。


从1962年中印边界战争以来,印度与中国的关系就变成非常恶劣的状态,尤其近年来中国积极协助“巴铁”的发展,更使印度对中国非常敌视。尤其莫迪(Narendra Modi)上台后用印度民族主义动员民众,使得中印关系无法平稳发展。不久前中印边界再爆冲突,印度立即就对中国多项高科技产品进行打压与进口管制,不利中印商贸经济发展。印度经济虽然与中国相差甚远,但印度人口规模庞大,如果中国被完全排斥在印度市场外,对于中国许多高科技产业发展有一定的影响。反之,中国能够进入印度市场,将更有助于中国产品在国际市场保持领先优势。

如何维持与印度关系的稳定,是当前中国政府应当特别注意的重点。印度是个大国,并不愿成为美国的附庸,长期以来印度采取不结盟的路线,与美、苏(俄)两强保持一定的距离。莫迪上台后虽然与美国日益接近,但仍然追求独立自主的发展道路,因此改善中印关系并非不可能的任务。不过,中国应该要有两手准备,万一莫迪为了维持其统治地位或转移国内的社会矛盾坚持与中国为敌,中国也应该有反击的智慧与勇气。

加强与欧盟的合作

在目前中美博弈中,欧盟的立场非常重要。欧盟与美国在文化与经济利益上有着紧密的关系,冷战时期一直都是支持美国的各项政策。但近年美国霸权心态日浓,特朗普的粗暴做法更是令德、法等国领导人无法忍受。所以在制裁中国问题上,欧盟各国都抱持非常谨慎的态度。不过,由于长期以来的反共意识形态作祟,欧盟许多国家对于中国还是充满各种疑虑,也对欧洲产品无法顺利进入中国市场颇多抱怨。中国如何化解欧盟的误解,增强彼此经贸合作,还有很多工作要做。

当下美国在科技战、贸易战上无法取胜,势必会采取金融战打击中国。不过,目前美国滥用铸币权,大量印制美元,将美国的经济危机转嫁给世界各国的做法,早已引起欧盟的不满。建立一套更稳定与公平的货币体系应该是欧盟与中国都希望实现的目标。在人民币尚未在国际市场取得稳定地位之前,中国应该与欧盟加强金融方面的合作,支持欧元的稳定,并共同建立一套新的国际金融交易系统,避免让美国继续通过控制环球银行金融电信协会(SWIFT)发动金融战。

特朗普现在的行为实际上违背了西方自由主义的价值观及其所建立的游戏规则,因此欧洲许多政治领袖对他是排斥的。中国要加强与欧盟各国的政经关系以及思想观念的沟通,争取欧盟在政治上能够保持中立,至少不会向美国一边倒,尤其要避免美国与欧盟结盟,使中国陷入孤立的处境。

基本上﹐中国如果能成功地避免陷入与美国高调及全面的对抗而造成新冷战局面的出现,美国想要在国际上孤立中国、立即与中国进行全面对抗的情形将不会出现。

结语

特朗普希望通过与中国的戏剧性冲突激起美国民众的强烈情绪,来提升他的低迷选情,他能不能达到目标尚未可知,不过明显已经是黔驴技穷。当然也不排除有另一种戏剧化的可能,11月美国总统大选前后,特朗普发现他的政治生命已经告终,这位商人总统或许会采取某些戏剧性的举措修补中美关系,为他下台后的商业帝国谋取利益。

而如果特朗普时代结束,我们就要开始认真思考拜登上台后的中美关系,以及如何应对美国可能发动的新攻势。那将会是一场更加持久与更具挑战的抗争。

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