“半小时中国首富”引热议:卖个水凭什么这么赚钱?

Posted on 9th Sep 2020

水不值钱,但如何把水运到你手边,这个过程很值钱。

9月8日,农夫山泉在港股上市。

毛利率55.4%、一年净利润49.54亿元是它给投资者的第一印象。凭借着优异的财务表现,农夫山泉开盘价达39.8港元,市值4453亿港元。虽然股价随后回落,但也让公司创始人钟睒睒一度超过马化腾和马云,当了半小时中国首富。



一家卖水的公司凭什么这么赚钱?我们来算算账。



生产水

根据农夫山泉的招股书,2019年它卖了1338.2万吨饮用水、108.2万吨功能饮料、75.4万吨茶饮料、51.2万吨果汁饮料,再加上咖啡、苏打水等其他产品,总共收入240.21亿元。



农夫山泉的产品线

其中,饮用水系列产品贡献了总收入的6成,是农夫山泉当之无愧的形象代言人。



那么,一瓶农夫山泉的成本到底是多少?

根据招股书披露的数据,农夫山泉饮用水每吨的售价为1072元。按一瓶550ml(实际有各种规格,包括1.5L、4L等)计算,农夫山泉卖给下游经销商的出厂价约为0.5896元/瓶。

饮用水产品的毛利率为60.2%,那么每瓶水的生产成本为0.23466元(0.5896元×39.8%=0.23466元)。

继续拆分,成本中水、瓶子、包装等材料各要多少钱?

在招股书中,农夫山泉列出的原材料是用于生产瓶子的PET以及糖、果汁,此外的成本是包装材料(纸箱和塑料膜等)、制造费用和人工薪酬,但就是没有水。

这是因为按我国法律规定,矿泉水是一种矿产资源。企业采水需获得取水许可证,缴纳与取水相关的水资源费。从2018年起,水资源费改为水资源税,成为税金及附加的一部分,不计入成本。

所以,要想知道水的成本,只能以农夫山泉所有产品线的总体成本进行估算。



以饮用水+饮料的合并口径计算,2019年,原材料成本占营收的19.4%,剔除生产瓶身的PET,糖、果汁、水等成本占总营收的5.3%。

此外,包装材料(纸箱、标签和收缩膜)成本占14.1%,制造费用及人工成本占11.1%。

所以,塑料瓶和包装材料的成本都是0.0831元,制造费用加上人工成本是0.0655元。

刨去这些,消费者真正喝到肚子里的农夫山泉牌饮用水成本只要3分钱(0.5898×5.3%=0.0313元)。

当然,因为农夫山泉官方没有披露水的成本,通过财报估算的结果可能并不那么精确。

一方面,0.0313元为水、糖和果汁的总成本,这会高估水的成本;另一方面,公式未考虑企业采水需要获取的探矿权等支出,这会低估水的成本。

我们来打个补丁,看看企业为了采水需要付出多少钱。

2019年,恒大长白山矿泉水有限公司曾经以215万元的价格获取了长白山天然矿泉水的探矿权。



根据吉林省自然资源厅官方网站上的探矿权转让公示,该矿产可供开采的水储量约为261万吨(每天不超过7150吨,转让时的探矿权还有1年才到期)。



以此计算,一吨天然矿泉水的探矿权只要8毛钱(215万元除以261万吨),分摊到每瓶550ml的农夫山泉瓶装水中,单瓶成本为0.00044元。

结论没变,每瓶农夫山泉的水的成本,大概率就是几分钱。

某种意义上来说,农夫山泉确实不生产水,它只生产瓶子。



搬运水

按照常理,品牌营销是农夫山泉这样的快消品公司的命脉。

“农夫山泉有点甜”“我们不生产水,只是大自然的搬运工”等一系列广告语,让消费者在面对超市货架上的康师傅、娃哈哈、冰露、怡宝等一众饮用水产品时会优先选择农夫山泉。

但正如“我们不生产水,只是大自然的搬运工”这句广告所言,饮用水行业的竞争,某种程度上其实是搬运工之间的竞争。

翻开农夫山泉2019年的利润表,总体毛利率为55.4%,净利率为20.6%,这中间很大一部分费用是销售费用中的运输费用。



净利率+所得税率+销售费率+财务、行政等费率=58.6%>毛利率,是因为农夫山泉的非主营业务贡献了3.2%的收入

农夫山泉的销售费用由物流及仓储费用、广告及促销费用、员工成本费用、折旧摊销费用及其他(差旅等)构成,其中运水费用又占销售费用的一半。

2017-2019年,物流及仓储费用分别占当年营收的13.4%,11.0%,10.5%,广告费用约为物流费用的一半。



不同于茅台等高端白酒动辄千元的售价,饮用水、牛奶、啤酒等日常快消品的单价相对较低,考虑到运输成本不能卖太远——载重14吨的卡车拉一车的饮用水,货价仅为1.5万元(水吨价1072元)。

因此,茅台可以从赤水河畔运往全国,而对运输成本敏感的饮用水企业很难在一个地方生产然后供应全国。

困扰恒大冰泉的正是这个问题:如果想靠长白山矿泉水供应全国,高昂的物流成本必然要求匹配产品高售价,但消费者对高售价的“恒大”牌饮用水并不怎么买账。

农夫山泉的解决方案是在全国分布10大水源地,依托水源地分区域设厂生产。即便如此,依然需要用去10%的收入承担运输费用,相当于一半利润。

换言之,饮用水品牌争霸全国的一大障碍是物流费用。这对新入局者不友好,可对已经覆盖全国的农夫山泉、怡宝、娃哈哈等老玩家来说,就是天然的护城河。



农夫山泉的工厂分布

近三年,农夫山泉给湖北丹江口、吉林长白山及浙江千岛湖生产基地的新工厂购置物业、厂房及设备分别用去22.7亿元、33.4亿元、32.3亿元。

分区设厂进一步加强了农夫山泉低成本的竞争优势。2017-2019年,农夫山泉饮用水的吨价从1122元降至1072元。



水不值钱,但如何通过生产分销,把水运到你触手可及的商超、小卖部,这个过程很值钱。



生意总结

如果对卖水这个生意做个总结,是这样的:

生产成本0.23466元,其中水0.0313元;

运费0.0619元,广告费0.03元,加上杂七杂八的其他费用,农夫山泉出厂价约为0.5896元,其中每瓶水农夫山泉赚0.12元;

经过经销商、超市、餐馆、自动售货机等多重渠道,最后到消费者手上零售价为2元。



生产成本与出厂价为准确数字,其余数字根据所有产品线数据计算得到,可能并不准确

经常听人这样说:如果全中国每人给我一元钱,那我就成了亿万富翁。我们都去看直播买买买,就有了李佳琦、薇娅们的财富故事;而我们喝水每瓶付2元,就是农夫山泉的财富故事。

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