作为「日本最长的首相」，安倍这些年究竟都做了什么？
文｜萧西之水
2020 年 8 月 28 日东京时间下午 5 时，安倍晋三召开记者发布会，宣布辞职。
安倍这次使用的仍是 2007 年首次辞职时的理由：「溃疡性大肠炎」。
安倍晋三既是二战后日本最年轻的首相（2006 年当选时 52 岁），也是日本历史上任职时间最长的首相（3169 天）、日本连续任职时间最长的首相（2803 天），尤其是过去八年来，给日本政坛带来了不亚于「311」大地震的撼动。
作为「四世三公」的政坛贵公子，安倍的历史观与修宪思想同日本中左翼政治家显著不同，所以一般认为安倍与自民党的政治光谱偏于「保守派」。
然而，2017 年《读卖新闻》与早稻田大学的共同调查却发现，自民党形象在日本 40 岁以下年龄层中早就不再是「保守」政党，而是其反面「自由」政党；相反，高呼「守护和平宪法」的左翼政党社民党、日共却已经变成年轻人心目中的「保守」政党。
对于没有受过政治学教育的普通日本国民来说，「保守」与「自由」并不是某种严谨的政治概念，更类似一种「变」与「不变」的形象区分。公众的印象更多意味着，安倍上台以后的各项改革举措，已经让日本人的政治认知发生 180 度的转变。
终结官僚：重塑日本政治生态
我们是为国家效力的，不是为政治家效力的！
日本作家城山三郎名著《官僚们的夏天》，描述了一副有趣的场景：台上的日本政治家无论高呼什么口号，从事具体工作的国家公务员都是一脸瞧不上眼的态度，继续我行我素。
2009 年改编日剧《官僚们的夏天》
「官僚治国」长期以来是日本的痼疾。虽然政治决策权属于政治家，但国家命脉事实上都掌握在懂法律、懂技术、有人脉的官僚手中，首相需要咨询甚至讨好官僚才能完成自身的政治理想。
官僚因此拥有许多事实上的「特权」，尤其是在退休官僚的「空降（天下り）」（另译：下凡）问题上尤其显著。
国家公务员工资有限，掌握国家权力的官僚收入非常少，因此退休官僚会动用积累多年的人脉从事「斡旋」，把自己安排到关联企业或者其他类型的财团法人、宗教法人、教育法人等等机构，以虚衔领取高额薪水。
日本经济学家野口旭、田中秀臣《构造改革论的误解》一书中就提出：「空降的经济学本质与贿赂一样」。
这种「贿赂」，成为了安倍整饬「官僚治国」的重要突破口。
早在 2007 年 7 月，安倍内阁修改《国家公务员法》第 106 条，针对国家公务员退休再就业设置许多障碍，同时在内阁成立「再就职监视委员会」，用于查处「空降斡旋」事宜。
第一次担任首相期间安倍晋三的官方照片
2017 年 1 月，该委员会查处文部科学省退休官僚的「空降斡旋」违规事件，安倍随即提出在全部中央省厅进行「彻底调查」，犯事的文部科学省不得不发动内部整肃，彻查 2009 年以来 500 多名再就职原公务员的就职经过。
此外，从 2014 年开始，安倍内阁设立内阁人事局，专门管理各中央省厅的干部任免、选拔、考核等事宜，几年来人事局频繁参与到各省厅人事调动中，打破官僚体系内部权力的「自相授受」，由首相官邸主导国家公务员系统的态势愈发明显。
安倍晋三也并非单纯打压官僚体系，而是希望国家公务员洗脱官僚主义习气，成为政治家可以信赖与依靠的执行人。
查处「空降斡旋」前不久，2016 年 11 月，安倍特意为国家公务员集体「涨工资」，年收入平均增长 5.1 万日元，通过「胡萝卜加大棒」的方式调教国家公务员队伍为己所用。
同时，他也注重从官僚体系中挑选有经验、可信赖的人才，调入首相官邸为己所用。
其中，经济产业省出身的首相辅佐官兼秘书官今井尚哉，在安倍 2012 年以后的任期里起到了重要作用。今井尚哉在经济产业省曾担任国家产业政策与能源部门的管理工作，也曾前往布鲁塞尔任职，在日本国内外有着充足的人脉与实践经验。
他的叔父 今井善卫（他也是《官僚们的夏天》玉木的原型人物）与安倍晋三的外祖父岸信介是同僚，所以安倍晋三与今井尚哉可谓世交。
今井尚哉担任首相秘书后，两次帮助安倍内阁推迟消费税增税的时间，将「同工同酬」、「育儿支援」等在野党的主要政策纳入内阁议程，促使安倍内阁的政策始终能获得多数国民的支持。
以今井尚哉为中心，首相官邸形成拥有强大政治能力和思考能力的「官邸官僚」团队。
安倍内阁得以不再像往常的内阁那样，将所有政治事务全部交由官僚化的中央省厅，而是充分发挥政治家的思考与决策职能，让中央省厅的国家公务员重新回到作为执行者的本来位置上，而这也让安倍的思路能够得以贯彻落实。
安保法案：尝试走向「政治大国」
二战后日本的自我定位，以「经济大国」与「政治小国」而闻名。
深感战争残酷与和平可贵的战后日本社会，全力投身经济建设、提升国民生活水平、尽可能不参与国际政治斗争。
经过七十年发展，二战前后出生的「昭和男儿」已经基本退出历史舞台，战争记忆日渐模糊。这对安倍晋三来说是绝佳机遇。
担任首相前，安倍曾在 2006 年 7 月出版政见宣言书《迈向美丽的国家》，先后重印 9 次、总计售出 51 万本，成为当时名噪一时的畅销书。
他以颇具情绪化的语言提出心目中理想的「美丽国家」形象：一是重视文化、传统、自然、历史的国度；二是拥有自由法治社会的国度；三是未来具有可持续发展能力的国度；四是受世界信赖、尊敬并且具有指导权的国度。
这意味着，安倍不希望日本仅仅停留于「经济大国」，更要进一步成为世界公认的「政治大国」。
但是，1947 年颁布的《日本国宪法》第 9 条第 2 款明文规定：「不保持陆海空军及其他战斗力量，不认可国家的交战权」。只要这一条款留存，那么日本不但不能对外宣战，也不具备组建军队的法理依据，甚至于日本现存的武装力量 自卫队都有「违宪」之嫌。
缺乏军队与战争权的和平宪法，显然是日本保守派建设「美丽国家」的最大阻碍，安倍在 2006 年 9 月就任首相前夕就公开表示，要「亲手重写一部宪法」。
2012 年 4 月，自民党提出一部修宪草案，不仅将日本天皇重塑为「国家元首」（现行日本宪法中无「国家元首」规定），还要求解禁自卫权，重建国防军。
以这份草案为背景，安倍晋三从 12 月开始自己第二个首相任期，朝着修宪方向努力。2013 年 8 月，安倍以首相身份参拜靖国神社，向日本保守派势力展现亲近之意。
不过，自民党修宪草案较为激进，遭到日本朝野各界的攻击，安倍并未把修宪草案直接提交国会审议，而是走「迂回路线」，试图通过改变宪法解释来扩大「自卫权」的解释范围，达到修宪草案中解禁自卫权的目的。
经过两年多的努力，日本国会在 2015 年 9 月正式通过安倍内阁的「安保关联法案」，允许自卫队在规定情况下行使「集体自卫权」。
安倍内阁强行推动「安保关联法案」通过的做法，激发了日本民众的激烈反对，法案通过前后数日，东京国会议事堂遭到游行民众的包围。
安倍晋三的外公、亦即 1957-1960 年担任首相的岸信介也曾强行推动「日美安保条约」通过，彼时国会议事堂也被愤怒的国民围了个水泄不通。
据说，当时刚上小学的安倍晋三倍觉有趣，曾模仿附近民众向外公高喊「安保，反对！」，遭到斥责，随后才改口「安保，支持！」
不知数十年后，自己身处当年外公的位置上，面临如同外公相似的处境，安倍晋三是作何感想。
2017 年 5 月 3 日，适逢日本宪法颁布 70 周年纪念日，安倍晋三以自民党总裁的身份向日本国民发表修宪演讲，针对宪法第 9 条，安倍希望「保留第 9 条第 1 款、第 2 款的情况下，将自卫队明文写入宪法」，相当于是在 2012 年自民党修宪草案与现实情况间选取一个中间选项。
时间方面，安倍晋三提出要以 2020 年作为「新宪法的施行之年」。
同样从 2017 年开始，安倍晋三开始面临一个接一个的丑闻。虽然自民党在接下来的选举中仍然连战连胜，促使保守派势力在国会获得了修改宪法必须的三分之二议席，但他与他的政治团队却无力推进修宪草案。
随着 2020 年新冠疫情袭来与东京奥运会延期举办，安倍的政治处境显得愈发难堪。
再难连任：任职末期的严酷政局
首相生涯后期，「溃疡性大肠炎」可能是安倍晋三面临的诸多问题里最容易处理的一个。
2017 年整饬文部科学省后，安倍迅速遭到来自教育系统的反噬，分别酝酿出「森友学园」、「加计学园」两大丑闻。
「森友学园」曾接受安倍晋三夫人安倍昭惠的捐款，而随后「森友学园」以极低的价格从日本国财务省手中购买一块土地用于建设小学，这出廉价出售国有土地的举动被人怀疑是由安倍指使。
安倍晋三夫妇
「加计学园」是一家位于冈山县今治市的教育机构，而安倍内阁在指定今治市为「国家战略特别区域」后，要求今治市「加计学园」负责经营冈山理科大学新设的兽医学部，由于兽医学部在日本西部属于稀缺专业，所以这次举动也被人怀疑是安倍晋三有可能从中牟利。
更麻烦的是，在「空降斡旋」中遭到处分的文部科学省退休官僚前川喜平提到：「加计学园」的兽医学部设立计划是由「官邸最高层」授意的，暗指安倍晋三牵涉其中。
「森友加计」丑闻爆发时，恰逢安倍晋三正在寻求连任三届自民党总裁。日本首相没有法定的任期限制，为了限制首相当选时间过久，自民党党内法规就为总裁设置连任上限，卸任总裁就不再是议会最大党的党首，亦即相当于辞去首相职位。
1974 年以来，自民党一直将总裁连任上限设置为「两届」，到 2017 年 3 月为了能让安倍晋三连选连任而改为「三届」。
卡在这个节骨眼上爆出「森友加计」丑闻，安倍晋三的连选连任之路受到很大冲击，安倍内阁不得不调整内外政策、迎合国民需求，这就耽误了修宪进度。
日本修改法律的程序非常复杂，首先由党派提交给国会，国会的众议院、参议院两院分别进行审议与表决，通过后才能择期生效。由于国会会期一般为 150 日（5 个月左右），过期不候，那么如果将新宪法生效日期定在 2020 年，那就必须在 2019 年年内进行国民投票、必须在 2019 年国会结束前通过两院审议与表决。
况且，同一时期还有大量法律文件需要国会审议，那么稳妥起见，安倍内阁最迟也要在 2018 年之前提出修宪提案。换言之，如果在中间任何一个时点出现意外，那么这个进度就会被拖缓。
不难发现，日本政治家的丑闻大多爆发于换届、连任或者修改党内法规、修改法律的关键时期，2020 年初也确实是这种关键时期。
理论上说，安倍的第三届自民党总裁任期可到 2021 年，如果他想继续做首相，那么就要在 2020 年内再度修改自民党党内法规，允许自民党连任上限提升到「四届」。
结果，继「森友加计」丑闻后，安倍内阁的其他成员也丑闻频发。
先是 2019 年 12 月底，曾在安倍内阁负责外商投资的秋元司遭到逮捕，理由是涉嫌收受外资贿赂；接着 2020 年 3 月，曾任安倍内阁法务大臣的河井克行涉嫌贿选案而遭到逮捕。两名深度介入安倍内阁的现职议员遭到逮捕，对安倍晋三的形象产生了恶劣影响。此外，安倍内阁数年来组织的「赏樱会」也因为严重超支而受到各界诘责。
河井克行与安倍晋三
再加上新冠疫情带来的经济冲击，民众对安倍内阁的支持率显著下降。
安倍辞职前的 2020 年 8 月中旬，内阁支持率已经降低至 34%、不支持率爬升至 47%，是安倍近年来支持率的最差数据。
此外，安倍晋三还面临着一个严重问题。他在 2017 年喊出要在 2020 年实行新宪法，如今这一目标不可能完成。按照日本特殊的政治文化，为了未尽的承诺而辞职，便是承担责任所必须。
或许正因为有这份压力，再加上新冠疫情带来的经济滑坡与应对问题，安倍晋三才会旧疾复发，最终不得不辞去首相职位。
卸任后，安倍并未彻底告别政坛，他将继续留任众议院，「以一名议员的身份协助下一届内阁」，亲眼见证自己在日本政坛留下的深刻印迹，将把国家带向怎样的未来。
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